Nov. 18, 2008
Independents Prove Key to Victory in '08
By John Thompson
RALEIGH - Humorist Will Rogers once famously quipped, "I don’t belong to any organized party. I'm a Democrat."
In the wake of a Democratic triumph that saw one of the best-organized presidential campaigns in modern politics, Rogers’ sentiment rings a bit hollow today. Nevertheless, many North Carolinians are echoing his words, sans punch line, as they literally belong to no organized party at all, instead falling into the ranks of the unaffiliated.
A rising tide of voter interest lifted registration for both major parties in 2008. Democrats finally ended what had been a slow leak of voters from their ranks over the past 30 years, while the GOP had its biggest jump in registration since 1968.
According to the State Board of Elections, this year Democrats saw their voter rolls swell by 471,000 -- or 14 percent -- thanks mainly to an increase in registration among 18-24 year olds. Republican registration grew by 84,000 voters -- or 4 percent -- in the same time frame, with the up tick coming primarily from voters ages 40-64.
However, unaffiliated voters surpassed both parties in their rate of growth, increasing by about 220,000 -- or 18 percent. These gains were made primarily among voters ages 18-24, meaning that an increasing number of voters -- especially young voters -- refuse to identify with any party at all.
It is notable that most of these new unaffiliated voters are young. They did not experience the polarizing decades of the 1960s and 70s (or even the divisive presidential election of 2000, for that matter) that drew a clear line through the ranks of the Baby Boomers. Instead, they are a generation that seems less likely to paint itself in vibrant blue or red hues, but rather in shades of purple.
That’s not to say that these independent voters lack political convictions. What it may mean is that they feel uncomfortable with the hyper-partisanship of Washington, D.C., or that their views don't quite square with the platform of either party. It certainly signals that they are effectively up for grabs by contenders from either party and as they are the most rapidly growing block of voters in the state, candidates ought to take note.
"There were a lot of independent voters across North Carolina, especially in our fastest growing areas of suburbia, who looked at the candidates in 2004 and decided to vote for George W. Bush, and looked at the candidates this year and decided to vote for Barack Obama," says Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling in Raleigh. "In 2012, they’re going to look at the candidates again and decide which party to vote for."
The electoral flexibility of unaffiliated voters is pivotal since North Carolina appears to be politically polarized among those who belong to one party or another. According to Jensen, just 18 percent of Democrats voted for Sen. John McCain this fall, while only 10 percent of Republicans cast a ballot for Sen. Barack Obama, a sign that affiliated voters are loath to cross the party line. That leaves the 1.3 million or so unaffiliated voters to play kingmakers in elections that are likely to be close on the presidential and gubernatorial levels, mirroring this year’s tight finishes in those races.
Make no mistake, Democrats still dominate Tar Heel politics. They hold a 46 percent share of registered voters, while Republicans trail at 32 percent. But at 22 percent and growing, independent voters are surging in number and electoral might. The question is: what do they want? The answer, though elusive, will be the key to victory for elections to come.
John Thompson is the executive director of the N.C. Center for Voter Education, a Raleigh-based nonprofit and nonpartisan organization dedicated to improving elections in North Carolina.
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